The Thesis

I note with interest all the news that is generated by the EPA and environmental NGOs about the scarcity of fresh water. There’s no doubt that fresh water is one of the few precious resources on the face of the planet, it is also a known fact that water resources all over the world is under threat; ironically, the main factor that threatens this precious resource is the world’s very own population growth.

According to Water Partners International (www.water.org) :

• 1.1 billion people lack access to an improved water supply - approximately one in six people on earth.
• 2.6 billion people in the world lack access to improved sanitation.
• Less than 1% of the world's fresh water (or about 0.007% of all water on earth) is readily accessible for direct human use.
• A person can live weeks without food, but only days without water.
• A person needs 4 to 5 gallons of water per day to survive.
• The average American individual uses 100 to 176 gallons of water at home each day. (6, 7)The average African family uses about 5 gallons of water each day.
• Millions of women and children spend several hours a day collecting water from distant, often polluted sources.
• Water systems fail at a rate of 50% or higher.
• Every $1 spent on water and sanitation creates on average another $8 in costs averted and productivity gained.

And one more thing,… the global water infrastructure is in real (desperate) need of repair and upgrade.

In Oct 18, 2007, the Water Infrastructure Network estimated the 20-year need for clean water infrastructure at approximately $300b-$500b over the next 20 years. This claim is also supported by the EPA and Congressional Budget Office (http://www.win-water.org/news/101807article.shtml).

Mind you, the $300 - $500 billion estimate is very likely going to be a much bigger number as nobody can truly predict cost effectively over a 20-year time frame, IMHO.

Do take note that we should be grateful that the water industry is regulated and this means we do not have to pay exorbitant price for a liter of water. Imagine having to shell out $1,000 per month for drinking water.

The main downside of a regulated market is, of course, the companies dealing with water utilities are not raking in the dough. Having said that, I believe this is where good governance comes into the picture and plays the part it supposed to – ensuring the population gets access to clean water without being subjected to corporate greed; and I am all for that.

Having said my piece without veering too much into being political, let's find out how we can participate in the potential boom in this industry.

Investing in Water Resources

Those of you who are reasonably seasoned in the stock industry would know that you can invest directly in water utilities. However, you will also be aware that the utilities industry needs to be regulated and is a very difficult industry. Most of the time, an investor wouldn’t particularly classify the water utilities as a "growth" sector; and that's a good thing, mind you.

However, as mentioned above, the infrastructure involved in obtaining, treating and delivering safe, clean water to the population is in dire need of various stages of upgrade and repair. This means that the engineering firms servicing this segment will be seeing an increase in demand for their products and services.

My first and very possibly the most cost effective way to invest in this industry would be to invest in the PowerShares Water Resources ETF (AMEX ticker: PHO).

This ETF ("Exchange Traded Fund") offers investment opportunities that tracks the Palisades Water Index. Based on the information from it’s website as of Nov 30, 2007, the ETF invests in 35 companies that relates to the water consumption in one way or another. With an annualized expense ratio of 0.66%, this ETF has a year-to-date return of 16.36% so far.

For a more global reach, PowerShares launched the PowerShares Global Water ETF (AMEX ticker: PIO) on June 13, 2007. As of Nov 30, 2007, the ETF has 40 positions in various companies around the world. It’s expense ratio of 0.75% p.a. is pretty reasonable for a global fund.

For those of you who are more inclined to take risk, you might want to take a closer look at the positions held within the ETFs as disclosed by the funds.

Of the holdings that are disclosed, Veolia Environment (Depositary Receipts listed on the NYSE under ticker VE) offers a great opportunity given the fact that it has been in the business since 1853 and currently is one of the well-established (pure play) operators in the industry. However, with its current price at $92.80 per share, the stock is trading at a trailing price multiple of 29x which may seems fairly valued.

Besides Veolia, I am also impressed with the performance of ITT Corporation recently.

Having won the contract to implement the upgrade of selected US civil air traffic control systems for the US’ FAA (Federal Aviation Administration), ITT Corporation expects their defense electronics and water units (both segments totaling approximately 85% of revenue) to be the key growth driver in 2008.

Besides, ITT Corporation’s Fluid Technology segment derives 46% of the division’s revenue from non-US markets (33% Europe + 13% rest of world). With the global demand to develop and upgrade its water infrastructure, it is very likely that the non-US segment of Fluid Technology is poised for further growth.

Moreover, ITT Corporation in fact has been consistently able to beat or meet Wall Street expectations over the past quarters and this consistency is rarely seen in the industry.

The company has also given a very favorable 2008 guidance and based on the recent price action below $65 per share, I believe this stock is worth researching further into for addition into your portfolio.

Disclosure: I hold stocks of Veolia Environment and ITT Corporation personally

Links to Useful Resources:

Water Resources:
http://water.usgs.gov/
http://www.win-water.org/reports/winow.pdf
http://water.org/waterpartners.aspx?pgID=916
http://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/stenv.html
http://waterindustry.org/Water-Facts/world-water-6.htm

Investments Resources:
http://www.powershares.com/products/overview.aspx?ticker=pho
http://www.powershares.com/products/overview.aspx?ticker=PIO
http://soundmoneytips.com/article/31264-investing-in-water-the-world-s-most-precious-resource

Having read through the book, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", by Burton Malkiel, I am convinced that one of the best ways to achieve a long-term diversified portfolio would be to invest via index-tracking funds.

That said, I have to say that if you are willing to put some time to do some research and homework on the stock market, you will be able to find the diamond in the rough. However, the chance of Joe Regular is being able to get strike gold and find tomorrow's Apple Inc. or Amazon.com Inc. can be relatively low.

Besides, for an investor to beat the benchmark index, be it the KLCI, S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial, the Hang Seng Index, etc., Mr. Investor will probably need to devote at least 36-48 hours per week to research.

Even with the work done, there is still the likelihood that the portfolio may not beat the market ALL the time. That fact alone convinces me that the best course of action for MOST investors will be to have their CORE asset base invested in index-tracking funds.

Over the long-run, even seasoned professionals such as Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett agree that index-tracking fund is the best investment option for the man on the street.

For more insight into this interesting subject, I would definitely recommend you the book I mentioned, "The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing: A Random Walk Down Wall Street".

Now, let's get started with the basics for constructing a cost effective global investment portfolio.

Global Portfolio - The Main Purpose

As we all know, a global portfolio is probably the best way for us to diversify our investment because it gives the investment a better opportunity and potential to grow by tapping in to the economic growth beyond our shores.

The main reason for this thought is the fact that economies around the world, although co-related, have different cycles of growth. By diversifying globally, you will also give yourself the opportunity to increase your investment's return without and not risk depending solely on one country's economy stability.

To illustrate, imagine if ALL your investments are focused in the SE Asia market in early 1996. Regardless of the quality of the domestic company you invested in, your investment is 100% exposed to the risk and economic uncertainties of one region while the rest of the world such as Europe and US recovered and chugged along to further growth.

Investing globally also gives you the opportunity to tap into the high growth emerging market economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China (also known as BRIC).

Of course, there is the remote probability of a global meltdown; if that happens, the flight to quality / safety will normally means capital flight to developed market's capital such as treasury bills and bonds offered by Western European countries and USA.

With a globally diversified portfolio, a portion your investments will be sheltered (or may even buck the downtrend) from a total portfolio meltdown, as opposed to a 100% disintegration if you had invested 100% domestically.

Global Portfolio Construction - the Primer Components

To construct a portfolio of stocks that covers the world over based on a typical man's payroll is virtually impossible. After all, how can you invest in the economy of every single country in the world? Even Mr. B Gates will very likely have some trouble doing it.

So, how can D Joe Regularis achieve his objective of "GLOBAL DOMINATION" !!! ... err (must have got a bit too excited there),... I meant, global diversification without having to become as rich as Mr. Gates? The answer - Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and/or Mutual Funds.

Mutual Funds

A Mutual Fund is an investment vehicle comprising of a pool of funds collected from many investors for the purpose of investing in securities such as stocks, bonds, money market securities and similar assets.

One of the main advantages of a mutual fund is that it gives small investors access to a well-diversified portfolio of equities, bonds and other securities, which would be quite difficult to create with a small amount of capital. Each shareholder participates proportionally in the gain or loss of the fund.

Mutual fund units or shares, are issued and can typically be purchased or redeemed at the fund's latest net asset value per share, which is calculated at the end of regular business day.

The mutual and/or unit trust funds issued by the domestic financial institutions include PB Mutual's PB Funds, Affin Funds, CIMB, etc.

Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)

A typical ETF is definted as a security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like a mutual fund, but trades like a stock on a listed exchange.

Unlike a Mutual fund, however, an ETF does not have its net asset value (NAV) calculated every day. As it is traded on a listed exchange, you don't have to wait until the end of the day for a NAV get that sale order you processed.

By owning an ETF, you get the diversification of an index or mutual fund as well as the ability to sell short, buy on margin and purchase as little as one share. Another advantage is that the expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund.
The only downside, you will need to pay a broker commission on any ETFs you trade on, just like trading on a common stock.
Given the choice of using either a Mutual Fund or ETF to construct my portfolio, I would normally have a preference to ETF as my choice first.

Expense Ratio - Why It Matters?

The expense ratio is the measure of what it costs an investment vehicle to operate. It is determined through an annualized calculation, with the fund's operating expenses divided by the average dollar value of its assets.
A fund's operating expense typically include recordkeeping, custodial services, taxes, legal expenses, and accounting and auditing fees, with the largest component relating to investment management fee. Some funds will have a marketing cost, also known as 12b-1 fee, which is included as operating expenses.

All in, operating expense is a charge to the investment fund's asset base and over time, it lowers the investor's return; the higher the expense ratio, the more of a drag it will be on the investor's return on capital over time. So, what is a typical operating expense ratio of an investment fund?

Operating Expense - the Domestic Take

Here's some food for thought - the operating expenditure for the Malaysia EPF is 2.37% (source: 2006 annual report). How do I get the number? Group-level Operating Expenditure on pg 165 of RM$688,586 divide by (Group-level) Member's Fund on pg 164 of RM$289,452,716. If you use the EPF-level, you will very likely get an operating expense ratio of 1.60%.

If you are curious how much the EPF is making for its members, here's the weblink to the website, which is pretty well-constructed: http://www.kwsp.gov.my/

For financial information, please navigate into the Financial Statements section within the "About EPF" domain. Being curious, I also took a quick look at the expense ratio of the Public Mutual fund group (link: http://www.publicmutual.com.my/).

Looking at the numbers, I guess it's typical for the domestic fund managers to fetch a nice 1.60% p.a. on the average asset under management.

So, the question at hand - how much you are willing to pay for the professional portfolio manager's investment management expertise? In a nutshell, I believe the domestic investor is willing to incur no more than 1.60% p.a. on his/her capital to generate a suitable premium return over the regular (risk-free) fixed deposit return at the local bank.

Global Portfolio Construction - Assembling the Components

Without further ado, let's see what a typical investment portfolio that spreads and diversify your investment risk and yet, gives you the opportunity to partake in the bountiful economic growth all over the world.

I have constructed a fairly aggressive global-oriented portfolio consisting of 7 (ViPER) ETFs from the Vanguard Investment Group; it comprises:

VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (15%)
VGK - Vanguard European ETF (10%)
VWO - Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock ETF (15%)
VV - Vanguard (US) Large Cap ETF (20%)
VO - Vanguard (US) Mid Cap ETF (15%)
VB - Vanguard (US) Small Cap ETF (10%)
VXF - Vanguard (US) Extended Market Index ETF (15%)

The above portfolio will provide the investor with a 60% / 40% US / Rest of World exposure. Depending on the risk-appetite of the individual investor, the % in Emerging Market or Rest of World ex-US can be increased at the expense of the US market exposure.

And by back-testing the portfolio all the way back to Jan 2 this year, the portfolio mix seems to have provide Joe Regular a YTD (year-to-date) return of approx. 14.5% thus far (Oct, 25, 2007), outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 by at least 2% points so far.

The only index that could have beaten it thus far is the US Nasdaq 100 which has been on fire lately. Alternatively, if you are more into US-based Growth-oriented, you can opt for the Growth variety of the Mid-Cap and Small-Cap ETFs, which are represented by the ticker symbols VOT (Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth) and VBK (Vanguard Small-Cap Growth).

If you would prefer a more conservative approach, the Value-play ETFs include the VOE (Vanguard Mid-Cap Value) and VBR (Vanguard Small-Cap Value).

I chose the Vanguard ETFs only as an example. If you do some research, you will see more ETF providers ETF which caters to various investment profiles. Even with only 7 (equity-focused) ETFs to work with, you can see as illustrated how versatile the world of ETF can be for an investor to work with.

The main reason I opt for the ViPERs in this example is their expense ratio, which is very low - less than 0.5% p.a.!

The US Small, Mid and Large cap ETFs have expense ratios of 0.1% to 0.13% p.a. whereas the emerging markets and international funds charges on average of 0.2% to 0.5%! And as you can see, there are many combinations for an investor to tailor his/her portfolio in relations to his/her appetite for risk.

Compare that to the expense ratio of 1.6% p.a. charged by most domestic mutual / unit trust funds - you should at least give try and take the opportunity to let part of your investment portfolio participate in the global growth.

And by the way, there are even ETFs out there that track security types (bonds or bank debts, anyone?), commodity markets, and even lets you short the major stock index such as DJ S&P 500 (?!), and much, much more!

The possibilities to use ETFs as a tool to improve your investment return are endless and can be used in many ways to broaden your investment reach.

Parting Words

Hopefully, the introduction to the versatility and opportunities of ETF as an investment diversification tool will spur you to look at the various ETF resource centre on the finance website within Yahoo! Finance or MSN Finance that you can use to find out more about this useful investment tool.

So, go out there and explore the variety of investment options available to you with this investment instruments alone.

Until the next time, invest well and enjoy.

At this moment, I am trying to write this short article to support the case for geographic portfolio diversification. How it all came to this? Well, I wonder about it sometimes, too. It wasn't so long ago that I was this naïve kid fresh out of college with no care in the world. Ten years or so since that event, I was sitting in a café with one of my friends from my college days chatting about the state of investments in our country.

We talked about a lot of things, but the focus of this topic finally settled to the types of products, or rather, the lack of it in the domestic market. Without much ado, let's get to the point of our discussion, shall we?

Let's start with our investment portfolio - what is in it? If memory serves me right, most of us would have a% in fixed deposits, b% in mutual funds, c% with EPF (let's hope our nice employer did contribute their proper portion, too), d% in stocks, and e% in cash, and if we are so lucky to have put ourselves in debt or mortgage, a nice little apartment with a nice address tacked to it.

So, what is this investment portfolio for, anyway? The much needed retirement fund? Or a college fund for our kids? What about that fund for the much-longed-for Porsche 911?

And if I am not mistaken, most of us should be at this very point of our lives by the time we are 30 years old, give or take 2-3 years (let's keep those born with a silver-spoon in their mouth out of the equation, shall we?).

Now, if you can plot a chart of your total investment portfolio value, for the past 3-5 years, it should fall within the average range of 10%-12% per year. If this is not the case, you might want to consider giving your portfolio manager the "finger."

So, why 10%-12%, you might ask. Well, for starters, the benchmark for the stock market in a developed world, i.e. US, UK and most of Western Europe, have on an empirical basis been within the said range since their inception. Obviously, there are ups and downs over the years for these benchmarks, be it the FTSE 100, S&P 500 or DJIA, but their performance on average will fetch an average investor 10%-12% per annum. Guess why our esteemed professors always seem to stick with the prescribed 10%-12% rate of return in our Net Present Value of Cash Flow in the classroom.

It's definitely not just because the number 10% is a nice, round, (and fat) number; it's also quite interesting how this number seems to be a rather frequent occurrence throughout history. Anyway, that's another story to be discussed in a different post.

Investment Portfolio's Risk-Return - Basics for the Laymen

Alright, back to economics 201 - dealing with the risk-return subject. If we pay attention during our Financial Management / Corporate Finance classes in college, the RISK associated with investment portfolio A of a said component of investment products that fetches x% per annum return over time MAY NOT be the same as the risk of investment portfolio B, even thought investment portfolio B is fetching the same x% per annum.

"Why do I make such an illogical statement?" you ask. Well, is it?

What if investment portfolio A limits its investment exposure to stable countries like US, UK Western Europe and Australia, and generating a 12% per annum rate of return? Compare that to investment portfolio B that returns the same rate of return, and yet invests in riskier emerging market economies.

Wouldn't you say that the risk associated with the rate of return for 12% per annum is higher for B compare to A?

Many measures of risk-return have been devised by various statisticians and baffled many a students in the subject matter. Moreover, the subject is still open, and will possibly continue to be open to debate in the near future.

However, in the practical world, the industry has comfortably been using the Sharpe ratio and Traynor ratio for this sole purpose.

Well, enough of the educational part of this article. For those who are interested in this subject, I would recommend you check out you local Borders book store for a copy of The Handbook of Corporate Finance: A Business Companion to Financial Markets, Decisions and Techniques (FT-Prentice Hall) by Glen Arnold and / or "Investment Planning for Financial Professionals" (McGraw Hill) by Geoffrey A Hirt, Stanley B Block and Somnath Basu.

To The Domestic Investor - Are You Diversified?

So, back to our main point of this article that focuses on 3 main questions - is the risk of our (domestic) investment portfolio too high? Can we improve our investment portfolio's risk-return profile? And how do we do it?

Consider the stocks in the stock exchange available to the regular domestic investors - Petronas, Sime Darby, Maybank, TNB, Genting, YTL or Maxis. All are very well-run, profitable companies and it is very possible that most of them have international exposure, i.e. exporter of goods and services. However, consider the risk exposure here.

Some of you might say the KLSE's indices have been outperforming the US, UK and other well established markets. So, why all these fuss is all about?

To that, I would just like to point out the good old days right before the 1997 crisis.

I am not sure if anyone else can recall the 1997 Asia-related economy crisis in detail, but I know if you held stocks in the companies listed in the KLSE (Main & 2nd Board), you will most likely wished you had held on to your cash in the bank; remember how long it too the KLCI to get back to it's pre-1997 level? If I am not mistaken, it took more than 5 years (editor, please correct me if I am wrong).

That means the regular domestic investors have to survive on sardines and crackers for the length of 5 years before we got back to the boom-days!

The point here being - you must never put all your eggs in one basket. The fact that your investments are all domestic-based proofs the point, despite the high-grade/quality of your investments.

So, what does all this have to do with your investments today? Guess what will happen if another Asian economic crisis occurs and all your investments are Asian companies?

Diversification is the key here. Besides, nobody can tell, the future, not even the great Sage of Omaha (although some who will disagree).

In a nutshell, the regular, law-abiding and ever vigilant, tax-paying citizen of Malaysia will probably be "investing" in - fixed deposits, mutual funds, selected stocks of the "best" domestic companies and maybe, manage to get indebted for one or two real estate properties; despite all their best efforts, they will not be truly diversified.

Now, if you are convinced that your investment portfolio can be further diversified, please read on. If not, please feel free to stop here since I do not wish to take too much of your time in reading any further.

Diversification - the "How"

Congratulations and thank you. You have finally realized the limitations of investments within the domestic market and taking the first step to diversifying your portfolio's geographic risk exposure.

It's like taking the little red pill in the scene from "the Matrix," doesn't it?

Anyway, please note that this is not a marketing scheme or propaganda to destabilize the domestic financial market (the status quo is doing a great job as it is).

What I would like to tell you now is no secret and it provides you with the possibility of re-aligning your investment portfolio from 100% exposure in the domestic market to maybe, say 15%-20% of your portfolio target.

There are various ways a non-US person (this means Malaysians, too) can invest in the US stock exchange market, principally, the NY Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ.

The US Stock Market & Investment Products

Why the US Stock market? Well, I guess you can try the UK's FTSE (which is a very fine exchange), too. But the main reason I like the US stock market is the fact that the market is as well established and as well run, if not better, than the FTSE.

A bit of pro-US sentiments, you may add. But seriously, if you don't mind paying the brokerage fee in Great Britain Pound Sterling, be my guest.

Now, back to business, shall we…

The US Stock Exchanges - principally the NYSE, NASDAQ and to some extent, the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) offers a variety of product for the regular retail investor to diversify their portfolio, and at a reasonable cost., I might add

After all, international companies of unparallel quality like Procter & Gamble, Citigroup, Dupont, Johnson & Johnson, 3M, Cisco, Exxon-Mobil, Colgate, Clorox, Boeing, Monsanto, Google, Lockheed Martin, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, Hewlett-Packard, Apple, Intel, to name a few, are listed either on the NYSE or NASDAQ. Even well known non-US companies the likes of Cadbury-Sweeps, Danone, Toyota Motors, Sony, China Mobile, Novartis, GlaxoSmithKline, Nokia, BHP-Billiton, either as ADRs, or GDRs.

For the investors with a more conservative risk appetite, there are mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) that offer exposure to certain sectors - agriculture, energy, metal & mining, consumer staple, consumer discretionary, financials, etc. Or certain geographic regions - Euro-Pac, Latin America, China, Eastern Europe, all the way to country specific-linked ETFs.

The two notable ETF groups are SPDRs (managed by SSgA) and VIPERs (managed by the Vanguard Group); both the SSgA and Vanguard are very well established investment managers. Have anyone heard of John Bogle (retired) of the Vanguard group?

Oh! And don't forget options, too. Yes! The Joe Regular can options, too!

So, do take a moment and tell me if you want to restrict your investment portfolio to just Malaysian stocks?

Online Brokerage - Pro's & Con's

With the advent of online brokerage, it is now possible for the regular man on the street to "day-trade" and this has been the phenomenon that had spurred the growth of several discount brokerage companies such as TD Ameritrade, ShareBuilder, E-Trade and Scottrade, to name just four of many such entities in the US.

Secondly, the cost advantage - with the advent of internet revolution, cost associated with stock trading has been made more affordable. At an average of US$10 per trade (some goes as low as US$5 per trade), the reduction cost of stock trading has definitely spurred the growth of stock trading in the US.

The downside, of course, is the research. Unlike the full service brokerage, the discount brokers don't provide comprehensive research materials, e.g. analyst reports and updates.

That said, the internet evolution has erased or at least, bridged the gap here and anyone who has access to the internet and a computer can do their own research.

To Ali, Ah Kow and Rajagopal

Now, before you run out and print the application forms to open an online brokerage account, please make sure you do some research with regards the taxation implications of your actions. So, if you intend to start to go about some elaborate venture, you will very likely need to consult with a tax agent to ensure you are properly setup for such a venture.

Remember, the subject matter here never has anything to do with Tax Avoidance (perfectly legal) and shouldn't ever be associated with any dodgy Tax Evasion (totally illegal) activities.

Since our purpose is purely economic, I can safely say any Malaysian intending to diversify their investment portfolio can do so without much hindrance.

After all, the sole objective of this article is to inform and present the option to the readers that portfolio diversification beyond the local shores as a possibility for the investors to reduce their geographic risk of their investments portfolio, which at the moment (I am sure), is pretty much 100% exposed to the local environment.

Which is what I would like to introduce to you in a follow-up article by next month; I hope to get the article to you by the end of October 2007.

With that, I bid you adieu and happy researching until the next time.