The Thesis
I note with interest all the news that is generated by the EPA and environmental NGOs about the scarcity of fresh water. There’s no doubt that fresh water is one of the few precious resources on the face of the planet, it is also a known fact that water resources all over the world is under threat; ironically, the main factor that threatens this precious resource is the world’s very own population growth.
According to Water Partners International (www.water.org) :
- 1.1 billion people lack access to an improved water supply - approximately one in six people on earth.
- 2.6 billion people in the world lack access to improved sanitation.
- Less than 1% of the world's fresh water (or about 0.007% of all water on earth) is readily accessible for direct human use.
- A person can live weeks without food, but only days without water.
- A person needs 4 to 5 gallons of water per day to survive.
- The average American individual uses 100 to 176 gallons of water at home each day. (6, 7)The average African family uses about 5 gallons of water each day.
- Millions of women and children spend several hours a day collecting water from distant, often polluted sources.
- Water systems fail at a rate of 50% or higher.
- Every $1 spent on water and sanitation creates on average another $8 in costs averted and productivity gained.
And one more thing,… the global water infrastructure is in real (desperate) need of repair and upgrade.
In Oct 18, 2007, the Water Infrastructure Network estimated the 20-year need for clean water infrastructure at approximately $300b-$500b over the next 20 years. This claim is also supported by the EPA and Congressional Budget Office (http://www.win-water.org/news/101807article.shtml).
Mind you, the $300 - $500 billion estimate is very likely going to be a much bigger number as nobody can truly predict cost effectively over a 20-year time frame, IMHO.
Do take note that we should be grateful that the water industry is regulated and this means we do not have to pay exorbitant price for a liter of water. Imagine having to shell out $1,000 per month for drinking water.
The main downside of a regulated market is, of course, the companies dealing with water utilities are not raking in the dough. Having said that, I believe this is where good governance comes into the picture and plays the part it supposed to – ensuring the population gets access to clean water without being subjected to corporate greed; and I am all for that.
Having said my piece without veering too much into being political, let's find out how we can participate in the potential boom in this industry.
Investing in Water Resources
Those of you who are reasonably seasoned in the stock industry would know that you can invest directly in water utilities. However, you will also be aware that the utilities industry needs to be regulated and is a very difficult industry. Most of the time, an investor wouldn’t particularly classify the water utilities as a "growth" sector; and that's a good thing, mind you.
However, as mentioned above, the infrastructure involved in obtaining, treating and delivering safe, clean water to the population is in dire need of various stages of upgrade and repair. This means that the engineering firms servicing this segment will be seeing an increase in demand for their products and services.
My first and very possibly the most cost effective way to invest in this industry would be to invest in the PowerShares Water Resources ETF (AMEX ticker: PHO).
This ETF ("Exchange Traded Fund") offers investment opportunities that tracks the Palisades Water Index. Based on the information from it’s website as of Nov 30, 2007, the ETF invests in 35 companies that relates to the water consumption in one way or another. With an annualized expense ratio of 0.66%, this ETF has a year-to-date return of 16.36% so far.
For a more global reach, PowerShares launched the PowerShares Global Water ETF (AMEX ticker: PIO) on June 13, 2007. As of Nov 30, 2007, the ETF has 40 positions in various companies around the world. It’s expense ratio of 0.75% p.a. is pretty reasonable for a global fund.
For those of you who are more inclined to take risk, you might want to take a closer look at the positions held within the ETFs as disclosed by the funds.
Of the holdings that are disclosed, Veolia Environment (Depositary Receipts listed on the NYSE under ticker VE) offers a great opportunity given the fact that it has been in the business since 1853 and currently is one of the well-established (pure play) operators in the industry. However, with its current price at $92.80 per share, the stock is trading at a trailing price multiple of 29x which may seems fairly valued.
Besides Veolia, I am also impressed with the performance of ITT Corporation recently.
Having won the contract to implement the upgrade of selected US civil air traffic control systems for the US’ FAA (Federal Aviation Administration), ITT Corporation expects their defense electronics and water units (both segments totaling approximately 85% of revenue) to be the key growth driver in 2008.
Besides, ITT Corporation’s Fluid Technology segment derives 46% of the division’s revenue from non-US markets (33% Europe + 13% rest of world). With the global demand to develop and upgrade its water infrastructure, it is very likely that the non-US segment of Fluid Technology is poised for further growth.
Moreover, ITT Corporation in fact has been consistently able to beat or meet Wall Street expectations over the past quarters and this consistency is rarely seen in the industry.
The company has also given a very favorable 2008 guidance and based on the recent price action below $65 per share, I believe this stock is worth researching further into for addition into your portfolio.
Disclosure: I hold stocks of Veolia Environment and ITT Corporation personally
Links to Useful Resources:
Water Resources:
http://water.usgs.gov/
http://www.win-water.org/reports/winow.pdf
http://water.org/waterpartners.aspx?pgID=916
http://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/stenv.html
http://waterindustry.org/Water-Facts/world-water-6.htm
Investments Resources:
http://www.powershares.com/products/overview.aspx?ticker=pho
http://www.powershares.com/products/overview.aspx?ticker=PIO
http://soundmoneytips.com/article/31264-investing-in-water-the-world-s-most-precious-resource